As China continues to carry out military drills near Taiwan and Japan, concerns are mounting that these repeated maneuvers may be setting the stage for something more dangerous — a sudden strike deeper into the Pacific or even on U.S. territory.
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) has raised alarms about the threat, warning that Beijing has normalized military operations in disputed areas to lull its adversaries into a false sense of routine. He emphasized that while Chinese aircraft cross into Taiwanese airspace nearly daily, there is always the risk that the next flight will not be a drill.
Will Guam Be America’s Next Pearl Harbor?
Donald Trump’s neocolonial foreign policy could invite a surprise Chinese attack on an underprepared American island in the South Pacific.https://t.co/uMUsbwz0xL
— That is China (@That_isChina) March 24, 2025
Cotton pointed out that Taiwan and Japan must respond to each incursion, draining their readiness and leaving their troops and equipment overextended. He said the constant tension could eventually dull responses from defenders and open a window for a real attack.
Alongside Cotton’s remarks, military analysts are cautioning that U.S. forces in Hawaii, Guam and even along the West Coast may be more vulnerable than believed. According to a retired Air Force colonel, the Chinese navy could use its large fleet of warships and commercial vessels to deliver long-range missile strikes from unexpected locations.
China’s warships are equipped with dozens of vertical missile launch tubes. In addition, experts say merchant vessels could be outfitted with missile launch containers, hidden in plain sight. China has access to a massive fleet of nearly 6,000 registered ships worldwide, and could potentially disguise armed vessels as civilian cargo ships.
Drones are also considered a serious risk. Variants that can launch from ships or coastal areas may carry small but effective payloads, capable of disabling key installations. Swarm tactics, using cheap unmanned aerial systems, could overwhelm defenses at critical U.S. facilities.
One proposal detailed in a recent military publication warned that container ships posing as civilian vessels could get close enough to U.S. ports or bases to unleash missiles or drones without warning. The attack could come from seemingly peaceful waters — leaving little time to react.
As a historical reference, defense experts recalled how Japanese forces took advantage of assumptions about the safety of Hawaii in 1941. They warned that a modern adversary like China could exploit similar blind spots with today’s more advanced technology.
