The odds the Republican Party will win a majority of the U.S. Senate in this year’s elections may be getting better as recent developments in Maryland, Montana and West Virginia may portend Republican victories on Election Day.
“This is a good map for Republicans,” said Dave Peterson, an Iowa State University political science professor in remarks to The Hill. “There’s a long way to go, and a lot of other primaries out there that could hurt them. But I think this is a good year for them.”
Jim Justice releases his first campaign ad in the 2024 West Virginia Senate Race pic.twitter.com/t9vPEnJRvM
— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) April 27, 2023
David McCuan — a political science professor at Sonoma State University — said Democrats have more seats to defend, and Republicans have more opportunities to make gains in the Senate.
“One reason that it’s still their chamber to lose is because they’ve been able to expand the map, and Democrats are unable to expand the map, they have to protect the map. So fundamentally, at base, Democrats are in a protect mode, and Republicans are in an expansive mode. Republicans remain on offense,” McCuan said.
Senate Democrats currently hold the upper chamber of the United States Congress with 51 seats while Republicans have 49. But during this 2024 election cycle, 23 Democrat seats are up for their six-year election.
.@Polymarket – Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2024 election?
Democrats 27%
Republicans 73%
—
• 10% Kyrsten Sinema runs for reelection
• 27% Biden drops out of pres. race
• 28% Haley drops out before Super Tuesday https://t.co/cmzvvysZv7 pic.twitter.com/eXJOPY7S5R— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 19, 2024
If former President Donald Trump has long coattails and the GOP wins the House and Senate majorities along with the White House, it could allow Trump to fast-track his priority initiatives through Congress. He could continue his first-term strategy of filling as many federal judicial appointments as possible to ensure conservative government over the long term.
“You already have a pretty clear path to 50. What you’re focused on now is adding additional seats for when it comes time to move legislation through the Senate,” an unnamed GOP operative told The Hill.
Although Maryland is a deep-blue enclave surrounding Washington D.C., popular former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is running to flip the seat red. Meanwhile, Montana Republicans talked Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) out of pressing forward with this GOP primary bid so the party can unite early around Tim Sheehy, the preference of Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT).
https://youtu.be/FS5AblpPatE
