Republicans Hold Edge On Democrats In Generic Congressional Poll

A new Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday shows that the generic Republican Congressional candidate is holding on to a lead of five percentage points over the generic Democrat candidate.

With the critical midterm federal elections less than 11 weeks away, the latest survey indicates that 47% of likely voters nationwide would vote for a generic Republican while 42% said they would prefer a generic Democrat. That matched the same 5-point lead the generic GOP candidate had in the previous week’s poll.

As Republicans hope to make up the small amount of ground needed to retake control of the House, Senate, or both, they have seen their generic poll advantage fall from the 10-point lead they held in July. The GOP’s slide since July did end this week as it held steady at 5 points up. Republicans have led in generic ballot polling through all of 2022.

Rasmussen pointed out in conjunction with the poll results that Democrats had a similar 5-point lead in the generic ballot in August 2018. Democrats won control of the House that year for the first time since 2010. In 2018, the generic ballot grew closer as the election approached, with Republicans actually leading by one point just before the general election that year.

Among independent voters, the generic Republican candidate led by 10 points over the Democrat. Only 32% of independents favored the generic Democrats, with 42% preferring the GOP candidate.

Black voters favored the generic Democrat by a 62%-27% margin over the Republican. Minority voters from other groups went with the Republican candidate, 46%-42%.

Party affiliation showed the expected high preference, with 86% of Republican voters preferring the GOP candidate and 80% of Democrats going with their party’s generic candidate.

The latest generic survey was conducted between August 21 and 25 and has a 2% margin of error.

The latest composite polling analysis by RealClearPolitics shows that in the House, 219 seats are at least leaning Republican, 182 are at least leaning Democrat, and 34 are currently rated as toss-ups. Either party must reach at least 218 seats to win control of the House for the next two years.

In the Senate, 46 seats are listed as either not up for election or at least leaning to the GOP. Democrats also have 46 seats not up for election or leaning their way. That leaves eight Senate seats rated currently as toss-ups. Republicans must get to 51 seats to retake control of the Senate, while Democrats need only hold 50 as they currently do, thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris.