Survey: A Conviction Makes Trump More Popular

The results from a February survey by the Harvard Center for American Political Studies/Harris found that if the government convicts former President Donald Trump of breaking the law, it will only make him more popular with voters in the White House contest with President Joe Biden this November.

The survey found that 52% of voters would back Trump and 48% would support Biden, even if the election interference case in Georgia were to lead to a conviction against him.

Meanwhile, 54% of respondents said they would still support Trump for president if the government convicted him of inciting the Jan. 6 unrest at the U.S. Capitol, and 46% said they would vote for Biden. These results indicate that the public views the criminal charges against Trump as political in nature and not genuine allegations of actual wrongdoing.

Trump led President Biden in the Harvard poll of 2,022 registered voters. When simply asked to vote for either Trump or Biden, 53% of respondents indicated the Republican and 47% said they would reelect the sitting Democrat president. That 6% margin of victory for Trump in the poll is well above the threshold for any margin of error in the polling sample.

The survey then reframed the question and asked voters who they would vote for if the government held the election today. The former president also won with that way of putting the question, with 48% of voters indicating Trump and 42% answering Biden, another 6% margin of victory for Trump in the survey.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R), who remains in the race for the Republican presidential nomination despite losing substantially to Trump in every state so far, lost the Harvard poll 41% to 39% when placed opposite Biden, with 19% undecided.

Meanwhile, 36% of the poll’s respondents said immigration was their most important issue, the most for any policy priority, with inflation coming in second place, with 33% of respondents naming inflation as their number one policy concern.

Trump recently posted on Truth Social, “Vicious gangs and gang members are pouring into our Country from South America, and from all over the World. They are being FORCED out of their Countries, in particular, Venezuela and Mexico, and DEPOSITED into the Good Ole’ USA by the tens of thousands … They think Biden and his Administration are a JOKE.”