Bruce Blakeman has cut Kathy Hochul’s lead in half, but the New York governor’s race still shows Hochul ahead by double digits.
Quick Take
- Siena’s latest poll gives Hochul a **49% to 39%** lead over Blakeman among likely voters.
- The same poll says this is Siena’s first likely-voter survey of the race this cycle.
- Hochul’s margin is smaller than in Siena’s June registered-voter poll, when she led **52% to 32%**.
- The polling shift keeps the race competitive, but Hochul still sits ahead as Election Day nears.
Polling Shift Brings New Attention to the Race
Siena Research Institute’s latest survey shows Governor Kathy Hochul leading Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 49% to 39% among likely New York voters. That result matters because it is Siena’s first likely-voter poll in this cycle, and it arrives with less than three months left before Election Day. The new numbers keep Hochul in front, but they also show Blakeman closing the gap enough to make the race look tighter than it did earlier this summer.
The size of the shift is what is grabbing attention. Siena’s June poll of registered voters had Hochul up 52% to 32%, a 20-point edge. The August likely-voter poll cuts that margin to 10 points. That is a real change in the scoreboard, even though Hochul remains the favorite on the latest public data. For both parties, the message is simple: the race is harder to ignore than it was a few months ago.
What the Numbers Actually Show
The headline claim that Blakeman has “cut Hochul’s lead in half” comes from comparing two different Siena polls with different voter screens. The June survey measured registered voters, while the August survey focused on likely voters. That means the polls are not a perfect apples-to-apples test. Even so, both surveys point in the same direction: Blakeman has improved, Hochul has slipped from a larger cushion, and the race has moved from comfortable to more competitive.
Hochul’s standing also has limits beyond the topline lead. In the August Siena release, she stays below 50% support, which leaves room for movement if undecided voters break late or turnout changes. Blakeman’s 39% showing is still behind, but it is strong enough to keep the contest alive and to fuel claims on the Republican side that the governor is not out of reach. That is the kind of polling trend both sides will try to use to shape the final stretch.
Why This Race Matters Beyond the Polling
New York’s governor’s race is shaping up as another test of voter trust in state government. Supporters of both parties have spent years saying Albany is not solving the problems that matter most, from taxes to costs to public confidence in state leadership. A narrowing margin does not settle those concerns, but it does show how quickly voters can shift when they believe the political class is not delivering results. That dynamic is now part of the fight between Hochul and Blakeman.
Siena: Hochul has 10-point lead over Blakeman in first poll of likely voters #Republicans #Democratshttps://t.co/yapwty1eo8 pic.twitter.com/JUFBcV5dpm
— Randyluv (@Randyluv5) August 12, 2026
The broader pattern is familiar in New York politics. A Democrat with a solid lead can still face pressure when a later poll shows a smaller gap, especially if the new survey uses a more selective voter screen. That is why this race is now being described as tighter, even though Hochul remains ahead. The numbers do not show an upset. They do show a contest that has become harder for Democrats to dismiss and easier for Republicans to frame as winnable.
