Job Growth To Slow As Biden Stagflation Fears Grow

A new report from The Conference Board suggests job growth in the United States may stall in the second half of 2024. The research group’s Employment Trends Index fell from 112.16 in March to 111.25 in April indicating a potential decline in job growth as the index continues to trend downward.

“The ETI fell in April a sign that employment growth could stall in the second half of 2024” said Will Baltrus associate economist at The Conference Board. “The ETI has been on a downward trajectory since its peak in March 2022 and this month signals a continuation of that trend.”

Despite the downward trajectory Baltrus noted that the index remains historically elevated and above pre-pandemic levels suggesting aggregate job losses are less likely than a slowdown in employment growth.

The Conference Board projects that slowing consumer demand for goods and services will be the primary driver of rising unemployment in the near future.

In April the unemployment rate remained low at 3.9% while the number of jobs added totaled 175,000 falling short of economists’ expectations of 243,000. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) measured just 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024 and inflation rose 3.5% year-over-year in March leading many market watchers to speculate that the economy is experiencing stagflation.